BARCELONA, Spain — Theoretically, a two-stop strategy is the fastest way from lights to flag in Spain, but expect to see most drivers attempt a one-stop. Reducing the amount of tyre changes limits the risk over the race and for that reason teams will always err towards a one-stop if possible. But in Spain it comes with the added benefit of keeping the driver off the troublesome super-soft compound tyre, which none of the drivers have felt comfortable on and only offers a marginal performance advantage over the soft.
Nine of the top ten drivers will start on the soft tyre — meaning they will attempt a soft/medium strategy — with home hero Fernando Alonso the odd one out on the super-softs. That could be a disadvantage for the McLaren driver as the stint wears on, but from eighth on the grid he will have more grip at the start and a good chance of making up positions on the long run down to Turn 1. If the conditions remain cold — air temperature was just 11C for this morning’s Formula 2 race — Alonso will have the benefit of starting on a lower working range tyre than his rivals in the top ten that should means he has more grip right from the start of the race.
Due to Barcelona’s new smooth track surface, degradation levels are relatively low. Instead, the physical wear of the tyre will be the factor that forces drivers to pit as the thinner tread on this weekend’s Pirelli tyre gets left on the track surface. If that tread gets very low, tyre performance will experience a sudden drop off — known as « the cliff » — so teams may be fairly conservative to ensure they don’t keep their drivers out too long.
The historic likelihood of a Safety Car at Barcelona is as low as 20 percent but the new track surface may have an impact on that as well. Following rain overnight, the rubber that builds up on the track over a race weekend has been washed away, leaving less grip than usual. The opening practice session proved that the Circuit de Catalunya can be treacherous in such conditions, so don’t be surprised to see mistakes in the opening laps as drivers battle for position. But unlike other races this year where a late Safety Car offered a chance to bolt on a fresh set of the softest tyres and attack for positions, the super-soft in Spain is offering such a minimal performance gain over the soft that gambling on a late pit stop may not offer much of a reward.
http://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/23488487/formula-one-spanish-grand-prix-strategy-guide
