SAKHIR, Bahrain – Teams face a choice between a one-stop and two-stop strategy in Bahrain.
The dry desert heat, an abrasive track surface and several traction events around the lap means the rear tyres will take a battering over a race distance and high levels of degradation are expected. Those unable to protect the rear tyres will be forced onto a two-stop, although Pirelli’s data also suggests that’s the fastest approach.
A typical pit stop will see a car lose 24 seconds compared to those running at full speed on track, but the potential for overtaking in Bahrain will encourage teams to go for the two-stop approach. Getting stuck in traffic is less costly when overtaking is possible and one-stoppers will be vulnerable to attack as their tyres age towards the end of the race.
If those starting on the super-soft tyre are going to aim for a two stopper, expect to see them swap their super-softs for softs around lap 15 of the race. Those attempting a one stopper will need to make it to at least lap 24 on the super-softs before switching tyres.
Lewis Hamilton is the only driver in the top ten starting on soft tyres, meaning he will likely run to around lap 21 in the hope of getting some clean air after his rivals starting on super-softs have stopped. The soft tyre is only 0.2s per lap slower than the super-soft, so Hamilton should be able to remain in touch early on and then use the performance of his W09 to push on and shuffle up the order with the overcut. That should take him as high as fourth place but — based on the pace of the Ferraris, Red Bulls and his teammate Valtteri Bottas in practice — breaking into the top four after that won’t be easy.
The other thing to keep an eye on is fuel saving. The Ferrari will be particularly marginal on fuel consumption in Bahrain, so if Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen retain the lead at the start they may opt to control the pack at a relatively slow pace in order to save fuel for the laps around the pit stops. But if Bottas or Ricciardo can get in among the Ferraris at the start they will look to exploit the SF71-H’s biggest race-distance weakness. It promises to be a fascinating race.
Long run pace (based on Friday practice)
Ferrari (fastest)
Mercedes (+0.0s per lap)
Red Bull (+0.1s per lap)
Toro Rosso (+1.0s per lap)
McLaren (+1.0s per lap)
Renault (+1.3s per lap)
Haas (+1.5s per lap)
Force India (+1.5s per lap)
Sauber (+1.6s per lap)
Williams (+2.1s per lap)
http://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/23074807/bahrain-grand-prix-strategy-guide
